How will Barack Obama get to 270?
Do you think he can pull it off?
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Tuesday is primary day in Kentucky and Oregon; SurveyUSA will have fresh numbers out on Monday in the Kentucky Democratic primaries for President and US Senate, and in Oregon’s presidential and gubernatorial primaries.
From American Research Group
Kentucky
Sample Dates: May 14-15, 2008
Clinton.....65%
Obama.....29%
Someone else...4%
Undecided....2%
12% of likely Democratic primary voters say they would never vote for Hillary Clinton in the primary and 50% of likely Democratic primary voters say they would never vote for Barack Obama in the primary.
Oregon
Sample Dates: May 14-15, 2008
Clinton....45%
Obama....50%
Undecided..5%
20% of likely Democratic primary voters say they would never vote for Hillary Clinton in the primary and 22% of likely Democratic primary voters say they would never vote for Barack Obama in the primary.
A Surprise About Obama, Clinton, and Turnout
Conventional wisdom has it that Barack Obama's primary victories are based on his ability to increase turnout.
A look at what happens when voter turnout increases in the primaries proves that this notion is wrong. In fact, Obama has had his greatest primary (and caucus) victories when turnouts have been low.
Obama received 66% of the primary vote in Georgia when 22.7% of all registered voters in the state voted in the Democratic primary. In Virginia, Obama received 64% of the primary vote when 21.1% of all registered voters in the state voted in the Democratic primary. In Mississippi, Obama received 61% of the primary vote when 24.4% of all registered voters in the state voted in the Democratic primary.
Hillary Clinton received 67% of the primary vote in West Virginia when 30.1% of all registered voters in the state voted in the Democratic primary. In Pennsylvania, Clinton received 55% of the vote when 27.7% of all registered voters in the state voted in the Democratic primary. In Ohio, Clinton received 54% of the primary vote when 30.5% of all registered voters in the state voted in the primary.
There are exceptions (such as Arkansas, Tennessee, and Rhode Island), but Clinton, and not Obama, tends to win in the states where turnouts are higher. The relationship is strong enough that Democratic primary turnout can be predicted using Clinton's share of the vote.
--Dick Bennett
