Tuesday, May 6, 2008

SUPER TUESDAY.......(again)

It is the big day in Indiana and North Carolina!..Now we will see who has the best polling system. Is it going to be SUSA, Suffolk, USA Today/Gallup, Zogby etc....??? Who knows and who cares because today polls don't matter. Today it is the vote that matters.

WHAT ARE THEY SAYING?

126 comments:

Anonymous said...

Gonna be a great day!!!!

Anonymous said...

Hey 30yr,
Did you see MSNBC today, Didn't Terry M. say Hill would win IN.? That is what I heard...the girl on there is saying he said she would win both...they can't even cover their own network without screwing up..gosh!

samd

30yrdem said...

samd,

Well I heard Terry predict that after Joe pried it out of him but he didn't say she would win both.(I don't think!) Are they really saying that???...Must be one of the Obama supporters trying to make Hill's team look bad......They mess up all the time...they need s script for live news at MSNBC.

30yrdem said...

samd

Hey I found this at the page, he didn't say she would win NC.

http://tinyurl.com/3jyz43

Anonymous said...

30,

Yes that is it, he did only say IN. Thanks for pointing that out at the page.Are you nervous about today? I have been trying to come up with something for your picture,nothing yet.

GO Hillary!!!

samd

30yrdem said...

samd,

ya know its kinda funny but I really am not worried about today for some reason....I think it is from so many polls, if they hold up Hillary will win IN. and Obama gets NC. I think it will be close in NC.......we will see!

Glad the link helped you out.

jslat said...

Hello- For some reason I'm very calm today. Not overconfidence but feeling that it is now out of my hands- I gave, I called-- I supported Hillary. Of course, I will be watching all the returns- going from channel to channel, site to site. I'm looking forward to seeing the real numbers. Polls have been intriguing but the REAL VOTE!

Working at home this PM- checking your blog. Was reading your blog while I had lunch- Liked the Edwards article- such a typical well-married couple- agreeing to disagree.

30yrdem said...

jslat,

Funny thing, just calmer with this vote. Right after she won PA. the talking heads were all saying he would win NC. She was a lot farther down in the polls there then. They said at the time if she could get within 5 points of him in NC. then the SD's should be worried about him not being able to close. I don't here that today....wonder why?

jslat said...

The only sound I hear is the sound of goal posts being dug up and placed farther down the field...

I'm not watching or listening to any coverage til 6:30-7:00 tonight for just that reason- all of the talk doesn't matter- the media needs to fill airtime and look busy & "in the know." It's the vote- then see whst will happen.

30yrdem said...

I was looking back at old videos, seeing if I could find some footage of election night in PA. I have had the television on but not much. If he does not win by 10 in NC then that means he isn't getting enough white voters....now that is my opinion.

jslat said...

I agree with you- I don't remember who it was yesterday (or even which show!) that was going over the NC numbers, but they broke down that dynamic as the most significant.
I talked with my daughter last night- she was out most of the day & had 7 meesages- most from Clinton, one from Obama call centers. She's in the western corner of the state- which is where HRC's looking to pick up votes. My daughter says- this past week is first she's seen Clinton yard signs- prior they were all Obama in her neighborhood.

BTW- don't know if you saw but Taylor has a post up about the Gas Tax Relief study in Illinois. Hope Hillary does well today & she can use some of that to respond to Obama's attack on the tax relief plan. Hopefully, someone has sent it to HRC campaign.

30yrdem said...

I am reading over this page from Hardball after PA.
http://tinyurl.com/6ger7a

seeing how they broke it down. Are things busy over at TM.? I bet it is moving fast.

30yrdem said...

I haven't had TM. up today. been doing a little research. I will have to take a look later.

jslat said...

I took a quick peek at TM at noon - yes they are very busy. Don't think I'll post any comments there today or tonight. I will "lurk" (don't like that word for some reason.)
I did make a pledge last night similar to the one on the nite of PA. They're going for $10 a pt IN & $20 a pt NC.

I liked some of the posts you received yesterday & today- some of the folks at TM seems so nice, but you're right some of them do get a little frenzied. Oh well- to each- her own.

30yrdem said...

Barack Obama can sew up the popular vote by winning North Carolina by 10 points or more and than by splitting the remaining primaries, because, under that scenario, even including Florida would not hurt him.

I was right about the 10 points, if you go by what Shuster says. If she can get as close as 5 points in NC. she is going to make his wheels fall off his wagon...

30yrdem said...

Seems like I look and you have not posted , I post and there you are.....funny

jslat said...

I'm making phone calls & working on my program's database- so -- not able to keep a smooth flow going.

OK- we watch the white vote tonight and cheer a well less than 10 pt lead in NC-- I think I've got it :-))

30yrdem said...

MATTHEWS: I‘ll play Terry McAuliffe. I‘ll jump up and down and tell you. First of all, no, we don‘t have the lead in the elected delegates. That‘s not the determining factor. We do have the most people voting for us, Senator Clinton, because even though they weren‘t ratified, those states—they were ruled out of order—they did vote for us. And what else? We‘re close in term of the overall popular vote, if you don‘t count those two states. And also, starting February some date, the 19th, that‘s the last time Barack Obama carried white people across the field.

So if he hasn‘t been able to do well in the last two months of this campaign, we think it is more important to look at the last two months than the first two months. And we think that if you look at the last two months of this campaign—it will be three months in a month—that‘s a better indicator of who should win this nomination. Can‘t they make that case?

BROWNSTEIN: They have reasonable arguments. Barack Obama said today, we have won the white blue collar vote in a whole bunch of states. It‘s just not true. He‘s won white voters without a college education in just a single state, Wisconsin. He even lost them in Illinois. He‘s won white voters who earn 50,000 or less, I believe, in just three states.

MATTHEWS: He lost the white women in Wisconsin. BROWNSTEIN: The problem is—and I agree. I think the problem Hillary Clinton has is that Obama can point to other constituencies that are stronger for hill, particularly upscale independents. The reality is that if she come out of this with a deficit of 100 among the pledged delegates, she needs at least two-thirds of the super delegates to go in her direction. And in fact, as we both know, the movement has been the other way, steadily heading towards him.

PAGE: The nomination has to involve another thing. It has to involve a big Obama gaffe or scandal or controversy. He survived the Jeremiah Wright. He survived bitter-gate. She needs something else to happen that raises really fundamental questions about his ability to win.



Didn't we have another big something else happen when the rev. showed up...I think that should ad to the question of his ability to win.

30yrdem said...

Don't let me keep you from your work, the post will be here when and if you find time to read it...I still have not found what I am looking for. When I do I will put it up.

30yrdem said...

I don't think I have seen the ad they are talking about here.

MATTHEWS: We‘re back with the politics fix. Let‘s take a look at this ad now. It is proud by Floyd Brown. He is, of course, the guy who produced the Willie Horton ad back in that ‘88 campaign. This is for North Carolina. It‘s an attack ad against, guess who? Barack Obama.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: My boy killed at 15, beaten with bricks after a gang member crashed into his car. Severo Enriquez, just 14 years old; when he refused to flash a gang hand sign, he was shot five time in the back.

They all died in 2001 in Chicago. The “Sun Times” called it urban terrorism and demanded action on gang violence. But that same year, a Chicago state senator named Barack Obama voted against expanding the death penalty for gang related murder. Can a man so weak in the war on gangs be trusted in the war on terror?

(END VIDEO CLIP)

MATTHEWS: There you have it, Jonathan.

CAPEHART: Wow!

MATTHEWS: The first shot. CAPEHART: All I can say is he‘s going to look back on the cling/bitter controversy with fondness. That‘s a really hard ad, a really hard ad. He is going to have to have an answer for it, whether he likes it or not.

MATTHEWS: It‘s a giant permission slip for somebody who doesn‘t want to vote for him to begin with. And it‘s also a permission slip for the Republican party to use him as a target throughout the general election. Right, Joan?

WALSH: Yes, this definitely proves, as Jonathan said, that nothing Hillary has done to date is really even a tenth of what will happen to him in the general election. It‘s not a reason not to nominate him, because she will have—we can all sit around and write the attack ads on her. It‘s going to be a nasty race. The one thing she has is that she‘s faced it before and she‘s fought back.


If you have seen this stuff stop me!

30yrdem said...

last of it...

MATTHEWS: Well, Roger, this guy hides under a rock every couple generations, shows up again with another ad against a black candidate, or using a black person as the bad guy.

SIMON: I‘m not a great fan of Brown, and I wrote ostensibly about the Willie Horton ad when it was used in a negative way. I‘m not sure you can say this ad is racially motivated. This is an attack on Barack Obama for a specific vote not extending the death penalty for gang members, or whatever the heck it‘s about. But it‘s not—you can‘t say that every time someone uses Barack Obama‘s picture in an ad, it‘s racism. The guy is what the guy is.

CAPEHART: Bravo, Roger.

SIMON: There are some unfair that are going to run, not by McCain, but by the 527s and others. I‘m not sure this is one of them.

MATTHEWS: You wonder whether the sound and the fury of the urban theme here doesn‘t sort of capture him as one of the criminals. Joan, that‘s the way I saw it. It sort of put him on the street corners with the killers.

WALSH: With the gang members, right. He‘s soft on gangs, and gangs equal black in this ad. I thought there was a little bit of racial coding, but I think Roger makes an otherwise good point. I think we can go too far in saying anything. MATTHEWS: I get criticized for being over-sensitive to these ads, but I know the country I grew up in and this is an easy target. I‘m sorry, Jonathan, you don‘t agree. Go ahead.

CAPEHART: I agree with Roger and I agree with Joan agreeing with Roger. I think Roger is absolutely right. Just because you criticize Barack Obama doesn‘t mean that it‘s racially motivated or should be viewed through a racial lens.

MATTHEWS: You guys may be right. I may be right. Anyway, Roger, I like being right rather than wrong. Thank you, Roger. Thank you, Joan. Thank you, Jonathan.

jslat said...

haven't seen most of it- since I stopped watching CM quite a while ago. Will check back in an hour or so & read all. Sorry, things keep popping up that have to be dealt with right away.

jslat said...

BTW- UTube video making it's rounds re: Obama Campaign INSIDE polling place with a sign that says something about helping peopel with their voting and has an Obama for America with logo at the bottom of the sign- folks are emailing it to DNC & media.

Back later

30yrdem said...

Thanks for the info on the tube....I was reading another show and it is funny how it fits in now. just going to post this bit of it.....later

MATTHEWS: He‘s in there backtracking and explaining the reverend whatever. He shouldn‘t have had to be talking about it, explaining that comment he made in that primary about “bitter,” when, in fact, I think she demonstrated she can win that state in the general. And I think she demonstrates in the polling lately that she can win in Ohio. I think she looks like a stronger candidate in those old industrial states than he does right now.

FINEMAN: I don‘t think there‘s any question about that. And I think one of the things that happens in a presidential campaign is people learn and they adapt. You can say all you want about Hillary Clinton, but she learned to adapt who she was in her message to Pennsylvania. And she showed a resilience that now the Clinton campaign is using as their main calling card. Their whole argument for Hillary now is, Look what a licking she‘s taken, and she‘s still there.

(LAUGHTER)

jslat said...

back for just a second- I forgot I have an appointment for the dog at the vet- but wanted to share this
http://www.electionjournal.org/?p=230
Be checking back .. (Are you trying to make me famous?? "jslat told me about this." I'll have to get my daughter and sons to check your site LOL

30yrdem said...

Thanks.....I sent the youtube to Hillary's camp as soon as I saw it. Thanks for letting me know on it, I am sure many were sending it...

Give credit where credit is due...I would have just been reading away here and not known till later if you had not told me.

I put up a piece of HardBall about NC. I hope it is a tie there. After reading the SUSA poll yesterday and studying it a bit...I think it will be close....(but I know I could be very wrong....)

jslat said...

The link in my last post is not the same one as I sent earlier- think you'll want to read it. Leaving for the dreaded vet (dog dreads- I think the vet is rather nice.)

Can't wait for tonight!!!

30yrdem said...

Yes I saw it...Thanks again...going to update....

30yrdem said...

How to Lose an Election 101

This is at HuffyPost

http://tinyurl.com/4hvzrf

for your enjoyment when you have time.....it is an ok piece

30yrdem said...

Looks like I am talking to my self here...I hope your vet trip went well. just had to say...

Tim Russert says SD's are watching to see if she wins IN. and makes it tight in NC....can he get the white vote...Tim R. has been talking to SD's and that is what they are watching to see.

It is getting close to poll closing time!!!!

If they say anything good I will put it here.

30yrdem said...

#'s are coming in CNN

HRC 64%....4,048

BHO 36%...2,273

I hope you are coming back Or I will feel pretty stupid here..

jslat said...

Don't feel stupid!! Please! Just back from vet- regular check-up & shots (he's glad it's over! The dog, I mean)

Those last numbers are from NC or IN?

I'm going to grab something to eat from the kitchen & turn on TV. Will be back with you (I'll look at HuffPo articles then.)

30yrdem said...

Indiana

Cliton... 61%... 13,897
Obama... 38%... 8,908
2%

30yrdem said...

Indiana

Cliton... 61%... 20,237
Obama... 38%... 12,935
in..2%

30yrdem said...

Indiana

Cliton... 61%... 20,399
Obama... 39%... 13,061
in..2%
SHE IS DOING GOOD SO FAR!


his counties where he will be doing good are not reporting yet.

jslat said...

Took a quick look at FOX MSNBC & CNN- not happy with the talking heads on any of them- hope the cast changes through the evening.

Hope the momentum gathers thru the night!!! Go IN! Go Hillary!

U were right- the article was good and very little was over the top. Did give BC a few chops-- but, guess who can take it!

30yrdem said...

I know what you mean. You get better numbers from CNN and I like the map...lol..

SUSA said...Clinton 54%, Obama 42% in IN.

SUSA said...Obama 50%, Clinton 45% in NC.

jslat said...

58-42 now IN

30yrdem said...

To close to call with all polls closing.......I don't like that

30yrdem said...

Good Lou Dobbs

jslat said...

Lou on CNN- now I can watch --

30yrdem said...

Have you seen this at the page

http://tinyurl.com/6ze3v8

jslat said...

Yes - good for Lou! Keep Roland in his place

30yrdem said...

Fox: 48% in Indiana and in North Carolina say Rev. Wright was “very” or “somewhat” important to their vote.

Watch video above. Read more from Fox here.

CNN: Among black voters in Indiana: Obama 92%, Clinton 8%; Among black voters in North Carolina: Obama 91%, Clinton 6%.

About half of Clinton voters in both states said they would not vote for Obama in November. Most Obama supporters would vote for Clinton in both states. More from CNN here.

ABC: Voters made up their minds earlier than in some other states. Read more.

CBS: Half of voters in both states valued the ability to bring change most; less than a quarter valued experience most. Read more.

AP: Two-thirds of Democratic voters in Indiana and nearly as many in North Carolina said the economy is the biggest issue. Read more.

MSNBC breaks down early voters: 37% white women, 30% over 60, 39% college grads, 7% first time voters

jslat said...

No- hadn't seen it- good for Harold- fight for our girl!

Chuckle- Lou is putting them on notice- calling spin when he hears it!

30yrdem said...

Yes - good for Lou! Keep Roland in his place

Are you going to finish my....lol

30yrdem said...

She is keeping a good lead so far

30yrdem said...

Did you here DB...a win is a win...she said Hill had to win PA. by 15.....such a double standard going on

jslat said...

Wish there was a stronger Hillary person on the panel tonight --

Are you ready? I predict that they will let us know how Obama won- no never what happens. LOL

But Lou will call them on it..

Exit Polls!!!

30yrdem said...

57%...43%..9%...IN.

She was holding a 10,000 lead now close to 20,000....I want her to win both.....so bad..

jslat said...

50-50 on does Obama care about voters like you? Means he has no problem???? The logic escapes me unless he had lower numbers in Ohio & Texas.

30yrdem said...

the numbers are changing so fast 58%/42%...

50-50 they started poling that after the bitter comment

30yrdem said...

if you want to go keep up at TM don't feel like you have to stay here..I can yell at my TV.....20,000 point lead now

jslat said...

Well then- it shows nothing! What if peopel had said 70-30 re same question prior to bittergate- see what I mean?

50-50 means that half the people don't think so.

The media really does want Obama to not be afffected by bittergate - it's sad!

30yrdem said...

What is sad is it will follow him just like rev. wright, ayers...Obama will be whining all through the GE if he gets the nod

jslat said...

I was just looking at TM- they are are manic- depressive right now LOL Some too scared to hope, some yelling- the pledge drive doesn't seem to be taking off- but those results will push it (Oh dear- just realized if she wins by 18-19 points- I'm in for $180-190-- money well spent, I say.

I'm calling my daughter to yell (and have her tell me -as all good daughters do- Mom, I wish you wouldn't get so worked up!)

Be back later

30yrdem said...

less than 5 min for NC polls to close, it will break my heart if they call it for Obama when the polls close

30yrdem said...

Obama NC

jslat said...

FOX calls NC for Obama!

30yrdem said...

should we cry now or wait to see the spread...it is the AA vote...it is a republican state also.

30yrdem said...

36% white vote

jslat said...

Wait for the spread- if she keeps it below 5 that is still BIG- and according to exit polls, Obama didn't have an increase in white male voters-- which is what they said would be an indicator (the AA vote was a given)

30yrdem said...

There are more dems registered in Oklahoma but it always goes rep.

jslat said...

Fox doing a good job on this issue right now

30yrdem said...

she has a 30,000 point lead now in IN. now I am worried, they should have waited for some #'s to come in in NC

30yrdem said...

I changed to FOX

30yrdem said...

They called it for BO but so far she is ahead

30yrdem said...

I am going to eat my dinner...later

jslat said...

I'm really bummed about NC- Can't watch the shows- think I'll check out the CNN interactive results page (if I can find it).

U OK?

jslat said...

Yes the results without the pundits are easier to take. I'll check back to see if u're here later.

Hope my mood improves- sure it will- expectations are tough with NC-

30yrdem said...

I am here....he is winning big in NC...yes we always knew he would win...it is another AA high population state...

jslat said...

I'm waiting to see the final votes & now looking over exit polls on http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/

I'm surprised how hard the NC thing hit me. I can't even look at TM yet. Will check there in a few-

How are you feeling?

30yrdem said...

I was just getting ready to ask if you had been there and I refreshed and your comment was there....I bet the language is foul over there tonight

30yrdem said...

Fox says CBS called IN for Hillary

jslat said...

Now by how much.. we wait. I'm waiting for Hillary's speech after IN is finally called by all outlets.. She does inspire me.
As we knew before- if it was split- we go on and really push for FL & MI

30yrdem said...

She will not give up on FL. & MI. that is what all this 2009 talk is all about....
Clinton delegate honcho tells The Page that his camp believes 2,209 — not 2,025 — is the magic number of delegates needed to clinch the nomination because they’re counting Michigan and Florida.

I put it on the blog

30yrdem said...

Still a lot of votes to come in yet in NC. IN. is 68% in NC. 25% in

jslat said...

I read it-
Took a peek at TM- Everyone very positive under a new CBS calls IN for Hillary. NC thread was up and down-- but on the whole-- still strong about moving on to WV

30yrdem said...

She will win WV and Kentucky...he will get OR....Bo is coming out hitting mute..

30yrdem said...

Well I was talking to my husband and I have decided I would vote for Jeb Bush before I would vote for Obama....I have never got to vote for a Bush....I always followed the party but not this time...and I am going to have to start over my count because I will not be a dem any more...don't know if I will go republican or independent yet...

jslat said...

Only hope for us is a win in the fight on the 31st for the FL-MI vote. But if two dozen SDs come out for Obama tomorrow like his campaign has hinted-- it'll be tough. If he gets the nom-- I will vote for McCain or write in Hillary-- just will not vote for him!

jslat said...

I'm already registered as Independent (not happy with the way dems ran in 2000 & 2004-- I changed in 2005.) If Obama gets it- I'll spend another 4 years unable to listen to the POTUS- Having same reaction to watching and listening to BO as I've had with GWB-- they are different but they both ran campaign based on Change (Washington/Politics outsiders)

BO with a dem congress & senate could be terrible.

30yrdem said...

Oh, I would never give him my vote...I really wanted Joe Biden to stay in...I am true to Hillary but I wish the press had not messed with this election the way they did...I think Joe would make a great VP choice for Hillary.

30yrdem said...

We are so much a like...I can not believe it, you sound like me...had to make sure I wasn't talking to myself.....lol...I never could listen to Bush...I can't think about the trouble the dem sen. and house with BO....


It ain't over till Hillary says it is and she will go on!!!

30yrdem said...

my set is still muted but it looks like it is about over....quiet in here......

jslat said...

Joe's my senator- guess where I'm from :-)) In our small state, everyone is just 1/2 degree separated. I work with JB's office when my nonprofi program applies for federal grants- they've always understood what needed to be done & proud to say- I've managed to get every US grant for my program.

He and Hillary were my favorites (with Hillary ahead, of course) of the original group, then John Edwards.

BTW- someone posted under BillClinton Video.

30yrdem said...

looks like SUSA missed it on IN.
52%/48% with 74% in

jslat said...

I've had the same feeling when I read your posts at TM & especially over the last couple of days! We might have to find a way to exchange email addresses - I'd love to know more about you and your family.

30yrdem said...

I am not paying much att. to things am I...I will go look..

30yrdem said...

that was left a couple hours ago....sorry I missed it...I can block my comments so they wont post some time and you can leave your e-mail..just make sure I have them blocked when you do....

they still won't call IN. for Hill on Fox..

I can give you my e-mail then delete the comment if you want to do it that way..what ever.

jslat said...

Ok- then I'll email you back & we'll have it :-)
Margin narrowing in IN- what happened? Relied on SUSA too much--- but what happened on the ground I wonder?

30yrdem said...

are you checking cnn on line...the maps...I just am not doing much of anything..

30yrdem said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
jslat said...

Hillary has- so far- the same voting pattern as GWB in 2004. IN

jslat said...

Have it

30yrdem said...

did you get that from CNN?

30yrdem said...

SUSA said...Clinton 54%, Obama 42% in IN.
52%....48%

SUSA said...Obama 50%, Clinton 45% in NC.

56%....42%

I hope it fixes its self fast...he keeps gaining in IN.....They are say her margin is starting to grow a bit in IN. on FOX

30yrdem said...

Those loose points had to go someplace I guess but I wanted them for Hill.

jslat said...

yes from CNN. GWB won IN if I'm not mistaken-- but this race, the two big precincts near Chicago might be more for BO than they were for JK in 2004- narrowing HRC's margin.. I'll settle down and just wait for final #'s

30yrdem said...

are you going to stay up till all numbers are in?

jslat said...

probably not- I'll turn in sometime soon & look at the numbers tomorrow-

30yrdem said...

I was looking at IN at CNN and not all of the votes are in from the ones BO is winning with 2 not reporting at all
4 all in 3 not done, he is blowing away her gain from PA.

30yrdem said...

from the way they are talking Gary IN is heavy AA, it is not reporting at all yet.

jslat said...

oh my...

30yrdem said...

They are talking on Fox about the rev and how they will call swift boating on the dem side....this one girl on here says it will hurt him in the GE...also saying rev is a loose cannon.

30yrdem said...

Did you see in NC all the votes that went to no pref.

30yrdem said...

I think she is getting ready to speak

jslat said...

i'll turn on tv- thanks

30yrdem said...

she looks good

jslat said...

Yes she does

jslat said...

That was good - tie breaker

30yrdem said...

Yes on to the White House!

jslat said...

Bill looks tired and mad

30yrdem said...

I was thinking he didn't look very happy.......

30yrdem said...

Boxing gloves in the background

jslat said...

:-)) kinda like I feel

30yrdem said...

He is from TM group

30yrdem said...

He is in one of the clips from The Daily show that was on last night.I put links up this morning to re-leave stress...I saw it last night..

jslat said...

I thought so- wasn't there I post from him after PA?

30yrdem said...

yes...I wonder if they know about the Daily show form last night@ TM...you should tell them he was on the Monday night show.

30yrdem said...

we are the can do nation

jslat said...

DEE4Hill was recognized on TM-

jslat said...

I posted it on TM

30yrdem said...

good...

I think I am going to call it a night.

jslat said...

Me too- just wanted to hear Hillary. Later

30yrdem said...

Have a good night...