Monday, May 5, 2008

TOMMORROW IS THE BIG DAY!........cont.....>>

POLL UP DATE:
Daily Presidential Tracking Poll
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Monday shows Hillary Clinton with a four-point advantage over John McCain, 47% to 43%. At the same time, McCain leads Barack Obama by an identical margin, 47% to 43%

In these match-ups, Clinton is supported by 78% of Democrats, Obama by 67%. McCain leads both potential opponents by four percentage points among unaffiliated voters.

Be sure to go to Rasmussen to read it all. Watch for New polling data for West Virginia today.
Texas: McCain Holds Modest Lead Over Both Democrats


I am waiting to see if SUSA comes out with a new poll today, they seem to always have one on Mondays. While we are waiting I wanted to repost this from NRO. It is from Tuesday April 29th but worth a repost as Indiana and North Carolina will be voting tomorrow.
NEW SUSA POLL!!!!!! Clinton 54%, Obama 42%.

Clinton Has The Hoosiers Right Where She Wants Them, 24 Hours Till Votes Are Counted:
24 hours till votes are counted in the Indiana Democratic Primary, Hillary Clinton defeats Barack Obama in the symbolically important popular vote, and possibly by enough to pick up more than a trivial number of net Convention delegates, according to SurveyUSA's final pre-primary tracking poll conducted for WCPO-TV Cincinnati and WHAS-TV Louisville. In 4 tracking polls over the past 5 weeks, Clinton has never polled lower than 52%, Obama has never polled higher than 43%. At the wire, they finish: Clinton 54%, Obama 42%. Among males, the two have been tied in 3 of the 4 tracking polls. Among females, Clinton has always led by at least 14, and finishes ahead by 22. Among Republicans and Independents, the two are effectively tied. Among Democrats, Clinton finishes ahead by 19. Clinton leads among Conservatives, Moderates and Liberals. She leads among Pro Life and Pro Choice voters, among regular and not-so-regular church goers. In Northern Indiana, she leads by 11. In Central and Southern Indiana, she leads by 27. In greater Indianapolis, Obama leads. Among voters under 35, Obama leads. Among voters over 35, Clinton leads.

24-Hours Till NC Votes are Counted, Obama Clings to Small Lead Over Clinton
Obama ...50% ....Clinton 45%...Other 3%....Undecided 2%
Among those who say they have already voted, Obama leads by 16 points. Among those who say they will vote on Primary Day, Obama and Clinton are effectively tied.

If SurveyUSA Is On Target, We're Seeing a Dramatic Shift

After seeing the Survey USA poll showing Hillary within 5 percent of Obama in North Carolina, I decided to go back to see how that firm had done in recent Democratic contests.

In Pennsylvania, Survey USA's last poll had Hillary 50, Obama 44. The final numbers in the Keystone State were 54.6 percent to 45.4 percent.

In Ohio, Survey USA's last poll had it Hillary 54, Obama 44. That almost nailed it, as the final numbers there were 54.2 percent to 44.1 percent.

In Texas, Survey USA's last poll had Obama ahead, 49 to 48. Hillary won that state, but it was indeed close, 50.9 percent to 47.4 percent. They had Hillary two points too low, and Obama about 1.5 percent too high.

So while Survey USA is the only one putting North Carolina in single digits, their track record lately suggests we shouldn't expect them to be too far off the final results. Also note that Survey USA puts Hillary ahead in Indiana by 9 percent.

I will update when the poll comes out from SUSA if they do have one today. Here is another repost. If you are wondering about this fuss over the gas tax.
Fact Check: Obama and the gas taxes

UPDATE:
This is a good read...*
Dialogue isn't the last word*
Obama's theme of transcending race to "bring together" everyone sounds better in a speech than it plays out in reality.

The Messenger Who Killed the Message*
"If you condemn bigotry when it is turned against people like you, but tolerate it when people like you turn it against someone else, you forfeit all claim to the moral high ground. You are a hypocrite acting only from narrow self interest."

Obama's Chilly Spring

Why Oprah quit Jeremiah Wright's church and Barack Obama didn't*
Read comment here

Check out what Crag Crawford is saying today.
Obama's Clinton Focus Helps Her

Popular Mechanics
WHILE Hillary Clinton probably can’t catch Barack Obama in the race for most pledged delegates at the Democratic presidential nominating convention, she does have a shot at overtaking him in the popular vote.

UPDATE:
Hillary Clinton: I'm ready to deliver the solutions nation needs

89 comments:

jslat said...

Heard that SUSA poll for Indiana was in- Hillary up big-- haven't seen it myself, yet but hope it's true. A big win there would propell her into WV and KY just nicely!!

jslat said...

Just saw your SUSA stuff- All I can say is YEAH!!! WAY TO GO!!! HILARY ALL THE WAY! (Sorry, I'm a little excited.)

jslat said...

Here's the SUSA poll link- WOW!! Going back to read it all..

http://tinyurl.com/4snxvq

30yrdem said...

My daughter has me tied to the phone...

jslat said...

LOL..I hope figuratively! Anyway, the breakdowns for AA, Independents and Repub REALY stand out in this, don't they? Looks good if it translates to NC a little.

jslat said...

Look at that Versus McCain column- she's blowing Obama out of the water!

30yrdem said...

It is going to be a good day tomorrow. still got my girl on the phone.

jslat said...

Fixing my lunch- I'm at home from office where my computer has died. IT guy is ordering new one. Dragged most of my files (paper ones) home and, thankfully, can work from here temporarily.

I'm so afraid to be too confident about tomorrow--- BUT, why not?

Will a NC SUSA come out today, do you think?

jslat said...

Fixing my lunch- I'm at home from office where my computer has died. IT guy is ordering new one. Dragged most of my files (paper ones) home and, thankfully, can work from here temporarily.

I'm so afraid to be too confident about tomorrow--- BUT, why not?

Will a NC SUSA come out today, do you think?

30yrdem said...

Will a NC SUSA come out today, do you think?

I don't know...I was looking for one.

30yrdem said...

Finally off the phone....They had Ohio and Texas polls and they were same day elections....I should have known that SUSA would come out and my phone would ring....she has sold her house and looking for a new one...she is stressed...RCP isn't reporting this SUSA poll yet at there site yet.

30yrdem said...

11 Clinton brand name stops in NC today....her and Bill are all over the state today....

30yrdem said...

last week poll from SUSA...NC.

In North Carolina, Clinton Closes To Within 5 Of Obama: In a Democratic Primary in North Carolina today, 04/29/08, one week till votes are counted, the 10-point lead that Barack Obama has had for two months is halved, to now 5 points, Obama 49%, Clinton 44%,

No new one yet going to look back at some old polls

30yrdem said...

Ohio and Texas both came out on 3/3/08....still waiting to see if NC one comes out.

Sorry to here about your work computer but you got to go home at least.

jslat said...

My daughter in NC told me a funny story- at the grocery store the bagger (an obvious recent HS graduate) and a young girl about same age were talking about voting and how they were going to decide. The girl said "I don't know about Obama. Isn't he a non-Christian. A buddhist, I think?" My daughter said kept quiet.. she figured she might confuse them even more. AH, the very young voter. (And for me, a chuckle since my girl is now 33 and shakes her head over the impressionable young!)

I loved the Obama Chilly Spring article.

30yrdem said...

My daughter is in NC also...the one I was on the phone with for over an hour...I don't want to put this up on my blog so I will put it here..I don't get it...why? I got it at the page...The OK pisses me off he lost here big time...
http://tinyurl.com/6x54lc

Obama 3, Clinton 0

–Obama to nab two Maryland Democratic Party leaders — chairman Michael Cryor and vice chairman Lauren Dugas Glover. Officials say other uncommitted state supers could also announce Monday.
He also gets backing of DNC at-large super Kayln Free from Oklahoma.

jslat said...

You know they're shaking when they drag so many out of BO's pocket on one day. Don't think it affects most voters-- could backfire if people think BO's trying to ram the SD thru before everyone gets to vote.

My girl's in Asheville

jslat said...

IN SUSA's up on RCP.

30yrdem said...

I can see it hurting...I just wish she would pull out 5 or something.

I have a short story..My daughter never registered to vote after moving to NC..Her husband was going to vote BO so she said we just won't vote because we will cancel each other out...He came home from work the other day bad mouthing Obama...he had said who he was voting for and they came down on him at work..He works at a large plant and no one like Obama there. Now it is to late for her to register... Rush is on Fox saying Hillary should keep fighting...I am going to listen to him here.

http://tinyurl.com/4r35cd

I never used to listen to Hannity or Rush...Rush still says BO will get the nomination.

30yrdem said...

Huffy is on Rush...

30yrdem said...

Hillary has a new ad playing in IN and NC.
http://tinyurl.com/5w2qlq

Obama did this..well SEIU
http://tinyurl.com/6jjcea

jslat said...

Frankly- his sucks! It is about who can get us out of Iraq honorably- his mailer's way too wordy.

Like hers- much crisper- If you're throwing a punch near the closing bell- short quick uppercut does it!

BTW, my dad was a former Golden Gloves fighter (back WWII days), since I was an only child for many years, he used to show me how to throw a punch (thumb outside not curled in--I still remember- never had to test it!). Then my 3 brothers were born and he concentrated his macho instructions on them. LOL the whole family says I'm the tough one!

30yrdem said...

Hillary needs all the fighters she can get!

I am seeing a trend in the news on television....more talking about how can she pull it off? what will it do to the party? seems to be a bit more favorable for Hillary lately. They have to know that he will be sunk, I think he already is,But what the RNC will do in the GE...

30yrdem said...

Rush is saying he is helping Hillary...talking about the crush...playing Morning Joe. Saying she sounds school girl happy..

jslat said...

HRC can handle RNC. It's always up & down through an election run... but we know how strong she can be.

I read that at a NC rally this am. There was a sign saying " Hillary Fights Like a Girl" held by some young women & there were lots of people dressed in pink. HRC hasn't run from her Female base. BO has dissed or distanced himself from his AA base. Don't think there will be as big a dust-up in the Demcratic Party if she pulls this one out! People respect loyalty-- don't like people throwing others "under the bus."

30yrdem said...

Rasmussen West Virgina 5/4/08

Clinton..56%

Obama...27%

30yrdem said...

HRC can handle RNC. It's always up & down through an election run... but we know how strong she can be.

I think she will beat John McCain strong but I do not believe Obama could pull it off.

jslat said...

Don't think Obama can win much ground there LOL.

30yrdem said...

29 points....I need to look back and see if rev. has done that

jslat said...

The only way Obama could pull it off (vs McCain) is with Hillary fighting for him. She really doesn't need him to win but she might take him as VP to appease some DNC diehard BO fans. She'd keep the party together- she knows how to "take one" for the team and come up roses!

jslat said...

RE; 29 pts- WV has ALWAYS been Bill Clinton territory.

30yrdem said...

West Virginia Primary Trends

Date...Clinton....Obama

5/04/08.56%......27%

3/13/08..55%.....27%

jslat said...

I'm starting to think, particularly looking at the poll demgraphics, that the Rev Wright issue is less important to base democrats than the "bitter" comments. Also, BO now using "dignity" (-- workers who have lost their jobs, lose their dignity)--- BOY that could backfire on him!!

Telling people in his best superior voice that they have no dignity-- I work with low income people here in our state & they get very offended if someone looks down on them when they hit a hard spot. BO trying too hard to connect with folks he really doesn't understand.

30yrdem said...

I would say so....

30yrdem said...

Telling people in his best superior voice that they have no dignity

I thought bitter "cling to guns, religion, antipathy to others" was really when he dropped

Has the press picked up the 'dignity' yet? I haven't heard it yet, may not but if he is using it on the stump, they (the people) will pick up on it.

What the reverend did, in my opinion, made him look like an AA candidate to the people. It did hurt...sad...

When we listen to him, my hubby and I, I do feel like at least once while he is speaking he says something that puts people down. Hubby won't listen to him anymore.

jsla said...

My husband would have had the same reaction I started having after listening to a couple of the "Change" rally speeches "you are the change you have been looking for" (shades of Ghandi). My BS meter went off the chart. That's when I think I stopped saying I could vote for any of the demo candidates.

All of the frenzy of his supporters was a turn off- except the AA supporters who truly wanted to believe in him once they saw he was electable. That I have always understood! But I really think he's not shown the loyalty that is required to keep good people in his corner. While his advisors pushed for the firm denounciation of Wright (and all of the Obama men in the media gave him that advise, also), it's a tricky position to throw even a crazy uncle under the bus. His advisors, media, SDs are all pushing from the top-- he's not reaching the very important middle. HRC does so much more "listen" to the middle. And now that Penn's out of the campaign, her instincts & Maggie Williams are showing everyone who's real.

30yrdem said...

I know how people try to hold on to what ever they can when they loose their job, no matter the reason. To say they have no dignity because they lost their job, I have been thinking about it for a bit and that hurts...I lost my job for health reasons, I refuse to draw disability because I don't want.....(never mind that). But to say I have lost my dignity......

30yrdem said...

Laura Bush is speaking on FOX...talking about Burma..they didn't let the warnings air so the people had no idea what was coming..

jslat said...

As far as the media picking up on the remark, I think it was Saturday on CNN someone reported that at a rally he said something about workers losing jobs and ultimately their dignity. The reporter said there was total silence. I haven't seen anything else on that anywhere, but I have picked up on a lot of "dignities" in Obama's recent stump speeches (what little I've caught of them.)
If he is using the line at rallies, etc.- undecided folks aren't going to move to him with that tone.

People don't lose their dignity in tough times unless some superior self-important folks make a big thing of looking down on them and take their dignity away. I've lived long enough and widely enough to know that.

jslat said...

Burma- another huge natural disaster- it feels like they're hitting constantly.

I need to stop posting for a few- need to get okays out and make calls so that three folks in the program I run can buy their first homes--- always a happy day for me, especially since our participants can only use fixed rate mortgages-- our program has had NO foreclosures over the past five years since we instituted the No adjustable rate mortgages policy. Hooray!

BTW- congrats to your daughter on selling her home. My younger son has had his for sale since last August- just had an offer two weeks ago for over $25,000 less than he owes on it-- the market really dropped here. He's waiting for his mtg co to okay a short sale- he needs to get out.

30yrdem said...

People don't lose their dignity....

That is the difference between the two, HE does look down on people every time he speaks, every time I have heard him I get offended, I thought it was just me but I don't think it is now, the more I hear him, he has this attitude like...'I know what you need America and I am the only one who can fix the problems'...telling me he knows what is best for me, and I don't...well did that make any since? probably not.

30yrdem said...

Don't let me keep you from work...catch you later.

30yrdem said...

If you are around

Poll: Obama clings to small lead over Clinton...SUSA NC

http://tinyurl.com/4c3b7b
Obama 50%
Clinton 45%

jslat said...

Definitely clinging. Same spread as last SUSA (49-44) but 5 points less than the two prior to that. She might get closer than 5. Oh tomorrow's going to be something else! I know I'll be up late- only time I wish I were in an earlier time zone is on election nights :-))

30yrdem said...

I haven't found a chart yet just that.5% left hanging..

30yrdem said...

24-Hours Till NC Votes are Counted, Obama Clings to Small Lead Over Clinton:
http://tinyurl.com/3sx5yb

Chart 2% undecided

jslat said...

Really love the CLINGING in the headline. Some headline writer has a wicked sense of humor.

Any other news up- Lou Dobbs show today? I now feel anchorless when I'm not checking blogs & shows and news sites on the web about the primary even for a couple of hours. Have CNN now- upcoming - how loser may decide race (don't understand this- let's see what Wolf has to say)--- repubs using featuring Obama- probably ones you have on your blog. commercial

jslat said...

Carville on CNN now

30yrdem said...

I don't listen to Lou on the radio, it keeps dropping out on me... Jackson on CNN now...And James C

jslat said...

Jesse Jackson, too

30yrdem said...

LOVE IT!

jslat said...

LOL- look at the times for last posts

30yrdem said...

NOW LOOK!

30yrdem said...

She will win...I know she will!!!

Have you seen the lady who predicts the future, the blog?

jslat said...

Wow- Carville is soooo smooth today- no rocking the boat- good for him-

jslat said...

no I don't know that blog- did she predict a HRC win?

30yrdem said...

Yes she did ...I can't find it still looking

30yrdem said...

here it is
http://tinyurl.com/22hges

after you read it go to the bottom left corner and click on blog, she updates there. I haven't looked in awhile...I don't believe in this stuff but I will take what I can get

jslat said...

Carville did support Hillary but not stridently- kept Jackson's Obama support in check-- JC is a real pro. But I did like the tenor of Wolf's questions

jslat said...

I'm not hearing about HRC "stealing" the nomination as much, are you?

I'll take a peek at the blog- I don't believe in that stuff either- but every smiley face is needed til we know the results tomorrow.

30yrdem said...

tenor of Wolf's questions

I am pretty sure Wolf is for Obama. It does show in his voice when he ask questions...he gets that twinkle in his eye when it comes to Obama.

30yrdem said...

About Hillary getting the nomination.

Fox news is trying to get the talk to go that way....one lady gave Dick Morris a hard time today when he said Obama has it locked up even if Hillary wins both tomorrow.

jslat said...

A twinkle I can accept- Doesn't come close to KO & gang.

I still watch CNN with a bit of distrust after the Obamafest that was going on. But I think what HRC's been accomplishing since Texas & Ohio has them pulling back a bit.

30yrdem said...

Time for Race for the White House on MSNBC...I do watch it most of the time...Rachel M. is not on today..so I will watch.

jslat said...

Oh my! Fox is so much nicer right now- think I'll stay on it for awhile. I just wanted to see JC- he's always fascinated (&frustrated) me.

30yrdem said...

Is Obama still the front runner? first question....

jslat said...

Obama- on gas tax relief- didn't work in Illinois- anyone researching that I wonder. He's not always right

30yrdem said...

I haven't, I put that one fact check piece up from ya-hoo news

30yrdem said...

They were saying on RFTWH if Hill can get 18% of the black vote in NC it would give her something to use with the SD's. The chart shows her with 12% and him 85% 1% other 2% undecided.

jslat said...

switched to RFTWH- just caught a glimpse of Bill Clinton on the porch of someone's house campaigning- he really looks in his element- If those small town voters turn out tomorrow, they'll go for Hillary in bigger #'s because of what he's doing.

Going to fix dinner now. be back

30yrdem said...

according to insider Advantage
Obama gets 78.6% of the black vote
Clinton gets17.7%....3.7% undecided

There numbers for NC are
BO...48.4
HC...44.5
UD...7.1

IN numbers
HC...47.6%
BO...44.2
UD...8.2
AA vote HC..4.0%...BO..80.2%...UD..15.8%

30yrdem said...

catch you later..

30yrdem said...

Lou Dobbs is going in for Hillary right at the beginning of the show!

I always watch Lou.

30yrdem said...

Clinton get 1/2 SD
Clinton snags Democrats Abroad superdelegate Theresa Morelli, of Milan, Italy. Counts as half a superdelegate vote.

jslat said...

Back. I'm watching Lou, too. I see upblog that TMs are asking you to come back. Will you be there tomorrow? I haven't spent much time there for the last two days. I did catch a new thread just now and posted first but don't know if I'll go back much.

I am enjoying our conversation.

30yrdem said...

I know you are not on but I wanted to leave you this..

McCain Camp Response to Obama’s Durham, NC Event
http://tinyurl.com/3ugv3t

GOOD READ!

Later...

jslat said...

But there is something about the whole group huddled together on primary nights that is fun!

30yrdem said...

I am enjoying our conversation.

May 5, 2008 6:08 PM


You don't have to hang around here..go one and play with the TM crowd...they are a fast moving fun bunch...no I don't think I will be going back

jslat said...

McCain Camp Response to Obama’s Durham, NC Event
Just what I suspected- it did lower gas prices!!! Another misspeak for Barry.

30yrdem said...

If it would get some press, you know how they like Obama

jslat said...

I'll try to get it to Joe S via email- don't know if they read them early enough to comment on it at Morning Joe

jslat said...

no I don't think I will be going back
:(((
Of course it's your choice. But I'll hop back & forth if need be :-))
If you could see me, you'd howl at the thought of me hopping.

30yrdem said...

I wonder if sending those e-mails do any good, I do it too. I would think it is a standard press release type thing, they never cover Hillary's camp stuff.

30yrdem said...

you don't have to jump, go ahead on over to TM, if you want to use my comments here to chat with someone just find a post and have fun. It's a free country...

jslat said...

okay, I will check back with you from time to time. I respect your choice but will now cut back posting on you blog-- but I won't disappear.

jslat said...

Stay safe

30yrdem said...

jslat,
I had not refreshed my page I didn't know all those comments where there. I answered them...

I really don't fit in at TM.

jslat said...

It's alright- but I do want to stay in touch here, ok?- I'm not a fast fit there but I do enjoy observing and chiming in at times. I love life's wondrous variety but prefer to be where I feel secure-- "old" woman that I am.

I'll be around- make sure those tornadoes stay away :-))

jslat said...

Good night, be checking in at times tomorrow-